The closer we get to draft day, the more convinced I am quarterbacks will go 1-2-3-4 for the first time in modern draft history.
There are too many quarterback-needy teams and too many tantalizing quarterbacks available for any of Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye or J.J. McCarthy to slip out of the top five, and I think one team — either the Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants or Denver Broncos — will be motivated to trade up and get one.
I've incorporated trades into my mock for the first time this spring. Nothing too crazy, but enough to have a sense of who might go where and when.
No. 1 Chicago Bears: QB Caleb Williams, USC
The consensus on social media is that Lions fans will start a “Jar-ed Goff” chant when NFL commissioner Roger Goodell walks to the stage next Thursday to announce this pick.
No. 2 Washington Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels, LSU
There’s been a lot of J.J. McCarthy buzz at No. 2 recently, but I’m sticking with Daniels, the dual-threat Heisman Trophy winner.
No. 3 New England Patriots: QB Drake Maye, North Carolina
This is the worst landing spot for a quarterback, given how barren the Patriots’ roster is.
No. 4 — TRADE — Minnesota Vikings (originally Cardinals): QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
The Vikings don’t have second- or third-round picks, but they can’t afford to haggle over the trade-up price and risk not getting their quarterback after dealing for a second first-rounder.
No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers: OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame
Give Jim Harbaugh his pick of the best nonquarterbacks in the draft and of course he’ll start with a lineman.
No. 6 New York Giants: WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
The Giants are another trade-up candidate for McCarthy, but the draft's best receiver is a nice consolation prize if they sit tight.
No. 7 Tennessee Titans: WR Malik Nabers, LSU
The Titans could take just about any position here and find an immediate starter.
No. 8 Atlanta Falcons: Edge Dallas Turner, Alabama
It’s a coin flip here between Turner and Florida State edge rusher Jared Verse, but Turner gets the nod because he's two years younger.
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No. 9 — TRADE — Arizona Cardinals (originally Bears): WR Rome Odunze, Washington
Much like they did last year, moving down to No. 12, then trading up with the Lions, the Cardinals get a haul to move down from No. 4 then move up and still get one of the best receivers in the draft.
No. 10 New York Jets: OT Olu Fashanu, Penn State
The Jets are all-in for what might be Aaron Rodgers’ last season, but they just signed a left tackle who hasn’t played a full season since 2015 so some insurance is in order.
No. 11 — TRADE — Chicago Bears (Originally Vikings): Edge Jared Verse, Florida State
The Bears have the first and ninth picks in Round 1, but only two other picks in the draft. By dealing down from nine, they get extra draft capital to build their roster and another pass rusher to pair with Montez Sweat.
No. 12 Denver Broncos: CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo
Sean Payton has to have something up his sleeve at quarterback, but there’s no one left worth taking at No. 12.
No. 13 Las Vegas Raiders: CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama
Back-to-back cornerbacks for AFC West teams who still have to figure out a way to beat Patrick Mahomes.
No. 14 New Orleans Saints: OL Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State
Fuaga likely would be a Day One starter at right tackle, but also could play inside if needed.
No. 15 Indianapolis Colts: TE Brock Bowers, Georgia
The Colts give second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson a trusty safety valve in the draft’s best tight end.
No. 16 Seattle Seahawks: DT Byron Murphy, Texas
Murphy has long been connected to the Seahawks and new coach Mike Macdonald as the best interior lineman in the draft.
No. 17 Jacksonville Jaguars: WR Brian Thomas, LSU
Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis won’t cut it as Trevor Lawrence’s top options at wide receiver.
No. 18 Cincinnati Bengals: OL Troy Fautanu, Washington
The Bengals will be back in the Super Bowl mix next season if they can keep Joe Burrow healthy.
No. 19 Los Angeles Rams: DT Jer’Zhan Newton, Illinois
Aaron Donald retired, so why not grab his replacement in the draft?
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No. 20 Pittsburgh Steelers: OL Graham Barton, Duke
A college left tackle who might play center in the NFL, Barton is considered safer and more versatile than Oregon’s Jackson Powers-Johnson.
No. 21 Miami Dolphins: Edge Laiatu Latu, UCLA
Latu won’t be on every team’s draft board because of his medical history, but he’s unquestionably one of the draft’s top pass rushers.
No. 22 Philadelphia Eagles: OT JC Latham, Alabama
Lane Johnson turns 34 next month and hasn’t played a full season since 2015.
No. 23 — TRADE — Arizona Cardinals (originally Vikings): DL Darius Robinson, Missouri
With the second first-round pick they acquired in the Vikings trade-up for McCarthy, the Cardinals take one of the draft’s most versatile linemen.
No. 24 Dallas Cowboys: OT Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma
If the Cowboys don’t want to move guard Tyler Smith to left tackle, Guyton has as much potential as any lineman in this draft.
No. 25 Green Bay Packers: Edge Chop Robinson, Penn State
Robinson didn’t have great production at Penn State, but his upside is undeniable as a pass rusher.
No. 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: C Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon
Baker Mayfield took 40 sacks last season. Powers-Johnson could start Day One at center or guard.
No. 27 — TRADE — Las Vegas Raiders (originally Cardinals): QB Michael Penix, Washington
In this scenario, this is the Cardinals’ third first-round pick (by way of the Houston Texans) and it makes perfect sense to deal to the Raiders, who have the highest second-round pick of the teams still in need of a quarterback.
No 28 Buffalo Bills: DB Cooper DeJean, Iowa
DeJean can play cornerback or safety — both needs for the Bills — and might be the best punt returner in the draft.
No. 29 Detroit Lions: OL Zach Frazier, West Virginia
I’ve gone offensive line in three straight mock drafts for the Lions, both because I like the players (Frazier, as well as Barton and Powers-Johnson) and the fit. Had Darius Robinson or DeJean still been on the board, they’d make sense here. And there are a couple cornerbacks left I strongly considered, including Ennis Rakestraw Jr. from Missouri. Ultimately, though, Brad Holmes is a build-through-the-trenches guy and I think that’s what the Lions do here.
No. 30 Baltimore Ravens: OT Amarius Mims, Georgia
Mims is a pure developmental play, but the Ravens can afford to bring him along slowly at tackle.
No. 31 San Francisco 49ers: WR AD Mitchell, Texas
There are so many good receivers it’s tough trying to pick who belongs in Round 1. Mitchell is one of the best size-speed combinations in the draft and would give Kyle Shanahan another weapon to play with on offense.
No. 32 Kansas City Chiefs: CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson
The Chiefs struck gold with cornerback Trent McDuffie in the back half of the 2021 draft. They can sit tight here and get another playmaker for their secondary.
Contact Dave Birkett:dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on X and Instagram at @davebirkett.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Mock draft 4.0: Detroit Lions stick with OL; J.J. McCarthy goes top 4
